The Toronto audience award has been a good Oscar predictor since 2008, when Slumdog Millionaire was a surprise winner and went on to collect seven Oscars, including best picture. Since then, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book have all gone on to win that awards-season double, while runners-up in the audience award—Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite—have also claimed the best-picture prize. Earlier this month, Venice gave its Golden Lion award to Nomadland—a meditation on the current economic crisis starring Frances McDormand as a “houseless” woman traveling the country in her van—while also honoring its director, Chloé Zhao. (Last year, the Golden Lion went to Joker, immediately giving that film awards-season legitimacy and propelling Joaquin Phoenix to his first Oscar for best actor.) In Toronto, which followed Venice and just concluded earlier this week, the highly influential audience award also went to Nomadland.
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Among his potential rivals is Delroy Lindo, in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, which is currently streaming on Netflix; Anthony Hopkins, in the harrowing Florian Zeller film The Father (an adaption of Zeller’s own play), which got rave reviews at Sundance, particularly for Hopkins; and several actors whose films have not yet been released, but who are generating a lot of strong advance word. They include Gary Oldman in Mank (playing the screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he battles with Orson Welles over who deserves credit for Citizen Kane); Tom Hanks in News of the World; and Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah. Meanwhile, Andy Samberg, the former Saturday Night Live cast member, might snag his first Oscar nomination for his role in the Groundhog Day–like Palm Springs, another big hit at Sundance.
