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Those two festivals, one held with socially distanced in-person screenings and the other held primarily online, seemed to have sharply narrowed the best-picture race to a handful of films and have begun to clarify some of the other top races, most notably best actress and best director. With Telluride and Cannes both canceled this year, and with the New York Film Festival scaled back, Venice and Toronto may hold even more sway this year. In what promises to be the strangest of awards seasons, with continued uncertainty about when people will feel comfortable returning to movie theaters and the Oscars already pushed back two months to April 25, one factor remains constant: The Venice and Toronto film festivals are still a reliable predictor of the films that will most likely compete for the top awards.

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Among his potential rivals is Delroy Lindo, in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, which is currently streaming on Netflix; Anthony Hopkins, in the harrowing Florian Zeller film The Father (an adaption of Zeller’s own play), which got rave reviews at Sundance, particularly for Hopkins; and several actors whose films have not yet been released, but who are generating a lot of strong advance word. They include Gary Oldman in Mank (playing the screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he battles with Orson Welles over who deserves credit for Citizen Kane); Tom Hanks in News of the World; and Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah. Meanwhile, Andy Samberg, the former Saturday Night Live cast member, might snag his first Oscar nomination for his role in the Groundhog Day–like Palm Springs, another big hit at Sundance.