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The Toronto audience award has been a good Oscar predictor since 2008, when Slumdog Millionaire was a surprise winner and went on to collect seven Oscars, including best picture. Since then, The 100 days of school valentine shirt, hoodie and sweater Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book have all gone on to win that awards-season double, while runners-up in the audience award—Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite—have also claimed the best-picture prize. Earlier this month, Venice gave its Golden Lion award to Nomadland—a meditation on the current economic crisis starring Frances McDormand as a “houseless” woman traveling the country in her van—while also honoring its director, Chloé Zhao. (Last year, the Golden Lion went to Joker, immediately giving that film awards-season legitimacy and propelling Joaquin Phoenix to his first Oscar for best actor.) In Toronto, which followed Venice and just concluded earlier this week, the highly influential audience award also went to Nomadland.
At this point, except for Nomadland and One Night in Miami, the best-film race seems the most fluid, with many of the 100 days of school valentine shirt, hoodie and sweater biggest films yet to be released, and one highly anticipated movie that has managed a largely traditional release during the pandemic: Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, debuting to mixed reviews and somewhat disappointing grosses. So far, the most likely contenders for a best-picture nomination seem to be David Fincher’s Mank, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch (to be released next year), The Father, News of the World, Judas and the Black Messiah, with the possible additions of Aaron Sorkin’s docudrama, The Trial of the Chicago 7. (An early favorite, Steven Spielberg’s remake of West Side Story, has been pushed back a year, to December 2021, because of the pandemic.) One outside contender might be Eliza Hittman’s quietly powerful Never Rarely Sometimes Always, a Sundance winner that opened to very strong reviews in March, just days before the coronavirus shut down theaters.
